决策者 | 中国在世界经济中发挥着举足轻重的作用

Editor's note: Decision Makers is a global platform for decision makers to share their insights on events shaping today's world. Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr., a Brazilian economist, is the former Vice President of the New Development Bank (NDB) and former Executive Director for Brazil and other countries in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

编者按：决策者是一个全球平台，供决策者分享他们对影响当今世界的事件的见解。巴西经济学家保罗·诺盖拉·巴蒂斯塔·朱尼尔（Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr.）曾任金砖国家新开发银行副行长和国际货币基金组织巴西执行董事。文章仅代表作者的观点，而非CGTN观点。

China has a substantial and increasing role in global economic matters. Yet, there is a tendency in certain influential circles in the West to understate China's relative weight and economic performance.

中国在全球经济事务中发挥着举足轻重的作用。然而，西方某些有影响力的团体往往会低估中国经济的重要性以及其在世界经济中的表现。

Everything that happens in China is of widespread interest to all other countries. China is first in terms of population. It has the third largest territory (after Russia and Canada). And it has become the world's largest economy, overtaking that of the United States.

中国发生的一切都会引起世界各国的广泛关注。中国拥有全世界最多的人口，领土面积位列全球第三（仅次于俄罗斯和加拿大）。中国已经超过美国，成为世界上最大的经济体。

This last point is disputed. Western analysts and media try to stick to comparing the relative size of different economies by using market exchange rate-based gross domestic products (GDP). However, GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP) is a preferable approach, since the frequent large fluctuations in market exchange rates lead to wide changes in GDP figures are measured in U.S. dollars that do not reflect actual economic changes.

最后一点是有争议的。西方分析师和媒体通常以市场汇率计算的国内生产总值（GDP）来比较不同经济体的规模。然而，市场汇率的频繁大幅波动会导致以美元计量的GDP数值大幅变化，难以反映实际的经济发展状况。因此，基于购买力平价法计算GDP数值是一种更好的衡量方法。

Moreover, market-based exchange rates are only relevant for internationally traded goods. Non-traded goods and services tend to be cheaper in the emerging market and developing countries, such as China, leading to an underestimation of their relative economic size when market exchange rate-based GDP figures are used.

此外，当期汇率只适用于国际贸易商品。新兴市场和发展中国家（如中国）的非贸易商品和服务往往更便宜，这也会导致使用汇率法计算的GDP数值要低于这些国家的实际经济体量。

Be as it may, whether number one or number two, China's weight is increasing on almost continuous basis. Human beings being what they are, this has led to envy, fears and attempts to contain China's economic rise.

不论中国的经济体量是全球第一还是第二，中国占全球经济的比重在持续上升。有些人对此心生嫉妒和恐惧，试图遏制中国经济崛起。

We even see attempts to isolate China. This is futile, since China has replaced the U.S. as the dominant trading partner to the vast majority of countries, even in South America. For Brazil, China has emerged as the largest export market since 2009. Last year, it accounted for 27 percent of Brazil's total foreign sales. China's economy is crucial for Brazil, especially for our agricultural and mineral sectors.

我们甚至看到有人企图孤立中国。这是在白费力气，因为中国已经取代美国成为绝大多数国家最大的贸易伙伴，在南美也是如此。以巴西为例，自2009年以来，中国已成为巴西最大的出口市场。去年，中国占到了巴西对外出口商品总额的27%。中国经济对巴西而言至关重要，特别是巴西的农业和矿业。

Thus, in Brazil, as in many other countries, there was much concern over China's economic slowdown in 2022. In the developed West, however, some Schadenfreude became apparent – irrational of course, given that China's lower GDP growth had harmed their economies as well.

因此，和其他许多国家一样，巴西也对2022年中国经济增长放缓非常关切。然而，西方发达国家明显带有幸灾乐祸的情绪——当然，这是不理性的，因为中国经济增速降低也会影响他们的经济。

Americans and Europeans could take comfort that China, in terms of development level, lags well behind the advanced countries of Europe and North America. China's GDP-PPP per capita corresponded to around 28 percent of that of the U.S. in 2021. But they are still worried. I lived in Washington D.C., as Executive Director for Brazil and other nations in the IMF, when China overtook the U.S. in terms of GDP-PPP. Apparently, many Americans were upset over the loss of their long-standing number one position. They try, together with other developed nations, to conceal this new reality by insisting on the use of GDP measured in market exchange rates.

令欧美国家“宽慰”的是，就发展水平而言，中国远远落后于欧洲和北美的发达国家。按购买力平价计算，中国的人均GDP只有美国的28%左右，但他们依然不太放心。我曾居住在华盛顿特区，在国际货币基金组织担任巴西执行董事，代表包括巴西在内的若干国家。我发现，当中国的购买力平价GDP超越美国时，许多美国人开始担心失去一直以来的领先地位。他们与其他发达国家一道，坚持使用经当期汇率调整后的GDP测算，企图来掩盖这一新的现实。

Not only, by the way, in comparisons of the relative economic size of countries, but also in negotiations of IMF quotas and voting power and similar issues in other multilateral financial institutions. The developed West hangs on to an institutional predominance that no longer reflects the realities of a multipolar world. One single figure suffices to make this point: Only 14 percent of the world's population are living in advanced countries. Moreover, an increasing share of the population of the U.S. and Europe comes from the developing nations of Latin America, Africa and Asia – despite fierce resistance to immigration.

这些发达国家不仅在国家经济规模比较中沆瀣一气，还在国际货币基金组织的配额及投票权问题上相互勾结。在其他多边金融机构的类似问题上，这种现象也屡见不鲜。西方发达国家坚持的制度优势已无法反映多极化世界的现状。一个数字就足以说明这一点：世界上只有14%的人口生活在发达国家。此外，尽管欧美国家强烈反对移民入境，但其人口结构中拉美裔、非裔和亚裔的比例仍在不断上升。

The ill will of many U.S. economists or U.S.-trained economists towards China is perceptible, since the 1990s. How many times over the years did one read or listen to dire predictions of a sharp slowdown, recession and even economic collapse? China disappointed these doomsayers. They may yet get it right one day, in the same way that a broken clock is correct twice a day. But it doesn't look like they will be more successful in the forthcoming years.

自20世纪90年代以来，许多美国经济学家和留美经济学家一直在恶意唱衰中国。这些年来，人们曾多少次读到或听到关于中国经济失速、衰退甚至崩溃的可怕预言？中国的发展让这些悲观论者失望了。他们或许终有一天会蒙对，就算是坏掉的钟，一天也准两次。但在未来几年里，他们蒙对的概率不大。

With the relaxation of COVID restrictions, the Chinese economy is expected to recover in 2023 and 2024. Fears that a wave of infections could derail the economy seem to have been overblown. The IMF foresees that China will grow around 4.4 percent this year, and this projection could be on the low side.

随着中国优化疫情管控措施，中国经济有望在2023年和2024年恢复增长势头。关于新冠感染潮导致经济失速的担忧有被夸大之嫌。国际货币基金组织预测，今年中国经济将增长4.4%左右，而这一预测可能偏保守。

Economic predictions are fragile. As an old saying goes in Wall Street: "If you have to forecast, forecast often." Accordingly, growth projections for China were often revised upwards during 2022. In 2023, China seems to have recovered its economic dynamism. Over the longer run, we can expect China to continue to expand its share of world GDP.

经济预测很容易被证伪。华尔街有句老话：“如果你必须做预测，那么就经常预测”。所以，中国2022年的增长预测经常被上调。2023年，中国势必能恢复经济活力。可预见的是，中国占全球经济的比重将进一步上升。

Nevertheless, China should not let success lead to hubris. When living in Shanghai, as Vice President of the Bank that the BRICS created, I was impressed by a statement made by the spokeswoman of China's Foreign Ministry Hua Chunying during her visit to Washington. In response to questions about China assuming political or economic leadership in international affairs, she said: "The word 'duty' is more accurate than 'leadership,' a duty to jointly solve various problems facing the world."

对此，中国应做到功成不居。在上海生活期间，作为金砖国家新开发银行副行长，我支持中国外交部发言人华春莹在访问华盛顿时发表的一份声明。她就中国在政治经贸等国际事务中发挥更大领导作用的问题做出回应。她表示：“比起‘领导’，我认为‘责任’这个词更准确，为解决当前世界面临的各种问题肩负起自己的责任。”

China, as well as the other BRICS countries, should show the world that we are not in the business of proclaiming ourselves global or even regional leaders and will, on the contrary, be humble in our relations with all countries, be they small or large, poor or rich. Other emerging market and developing countries will thus perceive the rise of China and the other BRICS member states as a qualitative change for the benefit of everyone.

中国和其他金砖国家应向世界表明，我们不会自诩为全球或区域领导者。相反，在与所有国家的关系中，无论对方的大小、贫富，我们都会保持谦逊。只有这样，其他新兴市场和发展中国家才会将中国和其他金砖国家的崛起视为惠及所有人的质变。

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